K.C. at N.E. (-16)

Oz: I believe Tom Brady will play this weekend, but it’s not enough to sway me on this spread. The Patriots, I guarantee, will try to bring Brady along slowly (he didn’t play one preseason game because of a foot injury) and balance the offense for week one against the Chiefs. If Matt Cassell is the starter, which he may be, the game will be even closer.

I’m slightly concerned about the run defense, but a good showing against Larry Johnson will push me in the right direction. The Patriots win, but not by three scores.

Kansas City (+16) over NEW ENGLAND

Joker: I think I agree with you here, except that you shouldn’t be swayed by their job against LJ considering the line is garbage and he averaged like 3 yards per carry in the preseason (I know you can base judgement on preseason) but his ypc has dropped each of the last three years.

Last year the Patriots lines could not be high enough, each of their games was like a college line.  Then at the end of the year, the odds makers caught up with them, and the other teams did as well.  I think teams will learn a bit from how teams stopped the Patriots offense in the playoffs and they won’t blow teams out like last year.  Then again, this is the Chiefs.  They also have nothing to prove like the eff you season of last year, and they will go about their business from the start.  I think we get the normal Belichick back who does just enough to win each week, and the oddsmakers get all their money back from last year.

Chiefs +16 (thought this was 16.5)

Each week the Joker and Oz will be providing a breakdown, conversation, and some comedy regarding each NFL game for us at the Union. You can find Joker blogging every once in a while at Downtown Padres and OZ at The Matthew Osgood.