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Who is going to win the SEC Championship?

The NCAA football schedule hits Week 12 and already attention is focused on the SEC Championship game, to be played a couple of weeks from now. It will, barring a complete disaster, be a matchup between the #1 Florida Gators and the #2 Alabama Crimson Tide. This online sportsbook currently has the Gators as the odds-on favorite to win the SEC at 5/9, with Alabama sporting odds of 7/5.

The BCS’ Top 5 teams remain unchanged from the week previous with the Gators at the top, the Tide No. 2 and the Texas Longhorns, TCU Horned Frogs and Cincinnati Bearcats rounding out the Top 5 in that order.

Florida hasn’t deviated from top spot since the BCS rankings first came out a little over a month ago and with two more easy games before the conference championship, there is no reason why the Gators shouldn’t remain at the top of the BCS rankings heading into the big game.

This week, Florida has a tilt against the Florida International Golden Panthers…this should be a blowout. It is one of the biggest pointspread margins of the season, with sportsbook listing the Gators as 43-point favorites.

Florida is currently riding an 11-game straight up winning streak. They have recorded a mark of 9-5-1 ATS the last 15 times they’ve been listed as a favorite of 8 points or more, but they’re only 2-5-1 ATS in the last eight in that spread range. Although 43 points is a wild spread to ask a team to cover.

Sports bettors are still enamored with the #1 team in the nation, as 74% of all the betting volume on this is laying the 43 points.

A quick note on the Total in this one: the last eight times the Gators have been favored by eight points or more, they have a mark of 1 Over, 6 Unders and 1 Push.

The Gators should be able to get by FSU the week after when the cross-state rivals meet.

Since 1995, Florida is 5-2 ATS in seven home games against the Seminoles.

All signs point to the Gators being undefeated going into the early-December SEC title match against Alabama.

With the exception of a blip in early-November, Alabama has been a constant in the BCS’ two-spot this season.

The Tide also have a powder-puff game this coming week against Chattanooga, but looking ahead, there could have trouble vs. the Auburn Tigers during Thanksgiving weekend.

‘Bama has struggled in its last eight games against Auburn, going 2-6 SU (these two have recorded 2 Overs and 6 Unders in those games).

In the Tide’s last seven road games against the Tigers however, they may be 2-5 SU but are 5-2 ATS.

Alabama has been a great road team in its last nine overall away games, going 8-1 SU and an impressive 8-1 ATS.

This much-anticipated SEC Championship matchup in a couple of weeks will be the biggest game of the year so far in college football.

Good luck this weekend.

How Daniel Snyder can fix the Redskins

Pepsi 500Hire Joe Gibbs as team president and give him a stake in the team. Daniel also needs to fire Zorn and Cerrato and keep out of any decisions. Let Joe make all the decisions and the Redskins will be competitive once again.

First advice to Joe when the higher him. No more big contracts unless its your guranteed QB of the future. Let the Redskins players play on the team to get the big contract elsewhere.  Daniel Snyder doesn’t understand that

5 Things I Learned in Week 5

Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco gets his helmet knocked off by 2 Baltimore Ravens. Cincinnati won 17-14.

1. Cincinnati and Denver defenses are for real

Before the season started, fantasy owners probably saw their stars going against Denver and Cincinnati and salivated. Clearly, that is no longer the case. Both the Broncos and the Bengals have played great defense all season, and they have beaten every other team they have faced this season. Now, you may say this is a week too late to learn this, but I didn’t write this article last week, and both teams confirmed the statements they made last week in week 5. Pittsburgh and San Diego need to be careful, or these teams are going to steal their playoff spots.

2. The bad teams are worse than we thought.

Buffalol (Because they’re a joke) and Cleveland played one of the most uninspiring games I’ve seen in years. Derek Anderson went 2-17 for 23 yards and won the game for the Browns. Weren’t Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson, Lee Evans, and Terrell Owens supposed to be talented? What happened to the team we saw week one against New England? I thought the Bills would be bad this year, but where is J.P. Losman when you need him? Meanwhile, the Oakland Raiders continued their descent into NFL hell, losing 44-7 to the New York Giants. Losman’s Las Vegas Locomotives might look more like a competent team right now than the Raiders. Eli Manning’s playing status was up in the air all week. What does he do against the Raiders? Puts up a perfect 158.3 quarterback rating! Still, St. Louis tops them all, having lost 15 consecutive games, the NFL high today. So why is Donnie Avery celebrating a 4th quarter touchdown to cut the game to 31-10? Sigh.

3. Roddy and Miles dominate

These really could not be more opposite stories, but both Roddy White and Miles Austin tallied over 200 yards receiving to lead their teams to victory. Austin put up 250 yards and 3 touchdowns, including the game-winner in overtime. Replacing the struggling and injured Roy E. Williams, Austin played far better than any Cowboy receiver had all year. Still, it was barely enough for the Cowboys to beat the lowly Chiefs. White, on the other hand, helped put away Atlanta’s game early en route to a 45-10 destruction of the 49ers. White hadn’t really gotten going in the first three weeks, and his 210 yard performance was more than he had all season. Both teams seem to be going in opposite directions. Despite the win, the Cowboys still look to be the third best team in their division, while the Falcons finally had a big road win.

4. Welcome back, Matt and Donovan!

Eagles QB Donovan McNabb and Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck returned from injury this week, and both proved early and often that they were fine. McNabb picked apart a porous Buccaneer secondary, posting 264 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a 157.2 QB rating. He also led the Eagles in rushing with 30 yards, which can’t feel too good for Eagles fans. Hasselbeck had no trouble with the Jaguars defense, putting up 241 yards and 4 touchdowns, 2 to Nate Burleson who has quietly been very impressive. Seattle and Jacksonville were two teams who were tough to figure out. Now, at least we know the Jaguars aren’t for real.

5. The Titans can’t lose again…can they?

Stick a fork in the Tennessee Titans. I could have bought an argument at 0-3 that they weren’t dead. At 0-4, they still could have won two straight heading into their bye and not be completely done. But at 0-5 they are finished. For the fifth straight week, people including myself were thinking, “The Titans are too good to be winless, right?” For the fifth straight week, the answer is no. Indianapolis is an extremely good team, but after three straight weeks of being close, the Titans showed that there is more to football than running the ball and stopping the run. Peyton Manning became the latest quarterback to torch the Tennessee pass defense. Next week they face New England in Gillete Stadium with the Patriots coming off a loss. Tom Brady and Randy Moss can’t wait to take out their frustrations next week. Can you say 0-6?

Check out Mackenzie Kraemer on his New York Jets blog.

Week 5 NFL Picks

Here we go, its week 5, and Oz and I are running through each NFL game to pick the winners against the spread.Baltimore Ravens v Pittsburgh Steelers

I am in Bold Font this week and Oz is in Regular Font.

Yes, sir, another week of NFL football. A side note: as much crap as I talk about baseball, I love playoff baseball. Good times. One caveat: I’m sick, so I won’t be spending much time agonizing over writing something substantial. Sorry everyone.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-9):
I like this game for two reason, well actually three. First of all, the Ravens are overrated. For two or three weeks now everyone has been talking them up like the best team in the league. We all know now that the Chargers aren’t really that good, so who did they beat? Kansas City, Cleveland and Atlanta. Their defense is not very good, but everyone gives them the benefit of the doubt because they used to be good. I complained about this last week and was right when the Patriots won. When a team is overrated, their lines are inflated. At the same time, the Bengals are probably a bit underrated because they have been so bad for so long. The third reason seems to be escaping me, we will come back.

Bengals +9

The Ravens are good, but they’re still getting too much credit for what they did in weeks 1-3. The Bengals are better than people think. That being said, they’re not that good.

Bengals +9

Cleveland @ Buffalo (-6):
Gross, just gross. Who wants to watch this game? I dont even know what to say here except both teams suck, and I would normally bet against a team that I consider the worst team in the league that already traded away a star player, but they are playing one of those “lets fire our OC a week before the season” teams and I feel like teams always bounce back after losing a Braylen Edwards type guy. He was the big name that dropped a bunch of shit and probably brought everyone down. I don’t care if they even play this game, let alone who wins. What I care about is the fact that Braylen tried to punch Lebron’s friend, Cleveland is getting revenge.

Browns +6

The Bills suck, but the Browns are far below them in the worst team in the league category. They’re demoralized. They blow. They have no weapons on offense and no one likes their own coach.

BUFFALO -6

Thats a good point, I would change, but I just have a feeling here.

Washington @ Carolina (-3.5):
Is Washington as bad as we think? Clinton Portis is apparently not on the injury report which would suggest he is more healthy than before. Meanwhile, I have picked the Panthers every week and lost, which usually means I would finally pick against them in their first cover. Not this time, the Panthers SHOULD be the better team here, especially at home where they went 8-0 last year. No one expects shit out of them, so they have nothing to lose…except the game itself.

Panthers -3.5

Did the schedule makers decide that there weren’t going to be any interesting games this weekend, or are there just that many bad teams in the NFL? I’ll take a shot on a healthy Portis.

Washington +3.5

Both, its funny you say this here, because they don’t get any better, I think there are a total of two interesting games this week, NE vs Denver and Baltimore vs Cincy (thats terrible that this is one of the only two interesting games)

Pittsburgh @ Detroit (+10.5)
Pittsburgh is good, and everyone gave up on them too fast after two straight losses. Their defense is not the same without Polamalu, and I am not convinced their running game is ok just because they ran all over the Chargers. However, Detriot is not good. Kevin Smith, Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson are all questionable. Chances are they all play, but they aren’t practicing hard, and its not exactly like they are all vets used to playing with each other. The Steelers have something to prove, less than last week, but hopefully they learned their lesson at Cincy. The Lions have lost by 18, 14 and 24 so far, why can’t the Steelers do that? Detroit is overrated because they finally won…really, I did just say the Lions are overrated, bet you never thought you would hear that.

Pittsburgh -10.5

The Lions are so overrated that they’re underrated. What? That doesn’t even make any sense. You’re right about the Pittsburgh defense and running game, but nothing suggests to me that the Steelers should struggle here. Plus, I’m starting Mendenhall, so I need big production.

Pittsburgh -10.5

Dallas @ Kansas City (+9)
Lets face it, Dallas really isn’t that good. They do have more rushing yards than any other team, and Kansas City has been pretty terrible against the run, giving up 120 yards per game. The Cowboys should be able to take care of business, and I am sticking with this OC firing thing for another week.

Cowboys -9

Perhaps a good thing to do, but I like the Chiefs at home with a lot of points behind them. Just a hunch.

KC +9

I think you are right here, I haven’t totally made up my mind, but for now I’m sticking with the Cowboys.

Oakland @ New York Giants (-15)
Damn, the Giants finally get a legit line. They have the running game to extend leads, and the defense to make Jamarcus Russell look…well, bad. This line seems pretty huge considering they have only won by this much once, against Tampa who I actually think is worse than the Raiders. I feel like teams have tried to beat the Giants by stacking the line because they don’t believe in their receivers, well that hasn’t worked, so I wonder if the running game is bound to break out, and doesn’t this feel like the game where Russell not only misses every receiver, but actually gives up lots of points to the defense? I dont know, it feels huge, but it also feels like they don’t want us to bet on the Giants.

Giants -15

The Giants have been winning me money since week one – and I have them in the Super Bowl. I’ve got to ride the “bet NYG and the spread until they lose” wave like you’re riding the OC firers.

Giants -15

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia (-14.5):
Speaking of the Bucs…I dont think any number is too big against them. The Bucs have given up 107 points in four games, and the QB that their head coach deemed a lifetime backup, is now their starter. Where is Jeff Garcia while all these terrible QBs are playing? Anyway, Philly will have no trouble scoring, no matter what they do. Oz and I could run the option against Tampa and I think we would score points. Springfield College could score points against this Bucs team. Do you get the point? Don’t fire your OC during the preseason.

Eagles -14.5 (yes I am taking both of these huge lines, vegas is obviously scared of us doing so, so why not?)

We started a survivor pool at work and the Eagles are my first pick. I’m pretty happy about this selection, so obviously I don’t think the Bucs are keeping it close. Philly has got McNabb coming back, so they might be a little conservative in play calling, especially since they’re not playing a very good team.

Tampa Bay +14.5 (too high)

Wow, I hear you, though, it is a big line. The problem is this, how do the Bucs keep it within two touchdowns? We already know they have the worst pass and run defense, so it won’t be with defense. So Philly plays conservative on offense and only scores 27, is the Philly defense going to give up 13 points to a team that scored 13 points in the last two weeks combined? Maybe. Philly won 38-10 and 34-14 in their two wins so far, and KC and Carolina both have better defenses than TB.

Each week the Joker and Oz will be providing a breakdown, conversation, and some comedy regarding each NFL game for us at the Union. You can find Joker blogging every once in a while at Downtown Padres and OZ at The Matthew Osgood. OZ’s novel, Chasing Sunsets, reads like a smooth glass of aged scotch. Buy it here.

Will Michael Crabtree be a Bust?

I highly doubt it.  I think he was smart enough to come to the bargaining table and make a deal so I think he will be smart enough to make it in the NFL.  The question is how long is his contract with his agent, Eugene Parker.  Do athletes usually sign agents for the term of their deal?  I would think so but I have a feeling Michael Crabtree is not happy with his agent at this point.  The fact that he signed now makes me think his agent was the one screwing things up for him.  Telling him he is worth all this money but then being wrong.  I guess the funniest part about this whole deal is that somehow MC Hammer was a part of it.  Who wants MC Hammer doing a deal for you?  Not Me.  Didn’t that guy basically lose his whole fortune?

Anyways, I predict the Crabtree is making plays in 6 weeks probably around Thanksgiving and I predict the 49ers go 12-4.