Here we go, its week 5, and Oz and I are running through each NFL game to pick the winners against the spread.

I am in Bold Font this week and Oz is in Regular Font.

Yes, sir, another week of NFL football. A side note: as much crap as I talk about baseball, I love playoff baseball. Good times. One caveat: I’m sick, so I won’t be spending much time agonizing over writing something substantial. Sorry everyone.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-9):
I like this game for two reason, well actually three. First of all, the Ravens are overrated. For two or three weeks now everyone has been talking them up like the best team in the league. We all know now that the Chargers aren’t really that good, so who did they beat? Kansas City, Cleveland and Atlanta. Their defense is not very good, but everyone gives them the benefit of the doubt because they used to be good. I complained about this last week and was right when the Patriots won. When a team is overrated, their lines are inflated. At the same time, the Bengals are probably a bit underrated because they have been so bad for so long. The third reason seems to be escaping me, we will come back.

Bengals +9

The Ravens are good, but they’re still getting too much credit for what they did in weeks 1-3. The Bengals are better than people think. That being said, they’re not that good.

Bengals +9

Cleveland @ Buffalo (-6):
Gross, just gross. Who wants to watch this game? I dont even know what to say here except both teams suck, and I would normally bet against a team that I consider the worst team in the league that already traded away a star player, but they are playing one of those “lets fire our OC a week before the season” teams and I feel like teams always bounce back after losing a Braylen Edwards type guy. He was the big name that dropped a bunch of shit and probably brought everyone down. I don’t care if they even play this game, let alone who wins. What I care about is the fact that Braylen tried to punch Lebron’s friend, Cleveland is getting revenge.

Browns +6

The Bills suck, but the Browns are far below them in the worst team in the league category. They’re demoralized. They blow. They have no weapons on offense and no one likes their own coach.

BUFFALO -6

Thats a good point, I would change, but I just have a feeling here.

Washington @ Carolina (-3.5):
Is Washington as bad as we think? Clinton Portis is apparently not on the injury report which would suggest he is more healthy than before. Meanwhile, I have picked the Panthers every week and lost, which usually means I would finally pick against them in their first cover. Not this time, the Panthers SHOULD be the better team here, especially at home where they went 8-0 last year. No one expects shit out of them, so they have nothing to lose…except the game itself.

Panthers -3.5

Did the schedule makers decide that there weren’t going to be any interesting games this weekend, or are there just that many bad teams in the NFL? I’ll take a shot on a healthy Portis.

Washington +3.5

Both, its funny you say this here, because they don’t get any better, I think there are a total of two interesting games this week, NE vs Denver and Baltimore vs Cincy (thats terrible that this is one of the only two interesting games)

Pittsburgh @ Detroit (+10.5)
Pittsburgh is good, and everyone gave up on them too fast after two straight losses. Their defense is not the same without Polamalu, and I am not convinced their running game is ok just because they ran all over the Chargers. However, Detriot is not good. Kevin Smith, Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson are all questionable. Chances are they all play, but they aren’t practicing hard, and its not exactly like they are all vets used to playing with each other. The Steelers have something to prove, less than last week, but hopefully they learned their lesson at Cincy. The Lions have lost by 18, 14 and 24 so far, why can’t the Steelers do that? Detroit is overrated because they finally won…really, I did just say the Lions are overrated, bet you never thought you would hear that.

Pittsburgh -10.5

The Lions are so overrated that they’re underrated. What? That doesn’t even make any sense. You’re right about the Pittsburgh defense and running game, but nothing suggests to me that the Steelers should struggle here. Plus, I’m starting Mendenhall, so I need big production.

Pittsburgh -10.5

Dallas @ Kansas City (+9)
Lets face it, Dallas really isn’t that good. They do have more rushing yards than any other team, and Kansas City has been pretty terrible against the run, giving up 120 yards per game. The Cowboys should be able to take care of business, and I am sticking with this OC firing thing for another week.

Cowboys -9

Perhaps a good thing to do, but I like the Chiefs at home with a lot of points behind them. Just a hunch.

KC +9

I think you are right here, I haven’t totally made up my mind, but for now I’m sticking with the Cowboys.

Oakland @ New York Giants (-15)
Damn, the Giants finally get a legit line. They have the running game to extend leads, and the defense to make Jamarcus Russell look…well, bad. This line seems pretty huge considering they have only won by this much once, against Tampa who I actually think is worse than the Raiders. I feel like teams have tried to beat the Giants by stacking the line because they don’t believe in their receivers, well that hasn’t worked, so I wonder if the running game is bound to break out, and doesn’t this feel like the game where Russell not only misses every receiver, but actually gives up lots of points to the defense? I dont know, it feels huge, but it also feels like they don’t want us to bet on the Giants.

Giants -15

The Giants have been winning me money since week one – and I have them in the Super Bowl. I’ve got to ride the “bet NYG and the spread until they lose” wave like you’re riding the OC firers.

Giants -15

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia (-14.5):
Speaking of the Bucs…I dont think any number is too big against them. The Bucs have given up 107 points in four games, and the QB that their head coach deemed a lifetime backup, is now their starter. Where is Jeff Garcia while all these terrible QBs are playing? Anyway, Philly will have no trouble scoring, no matter what they do. Oz and I could run the option against Tampa and I think we would score points. Springfield College could score points against this Bucs team. Do you get the point? Don’t fire your OC during the preseason.

Eagles -14.5 (yes I am taking both of these huge lines, vegas is obviously scared of us doing so, so why not?)

We started a survivor pool at work and the Eagles are my first pick. I’m pretty happy about this selection, so obviously I don’t think the Bucs are keeping it close. Philly has got McNabb coming back, so they might be a little conservative in play calling, especially since they’re not playing a very good team.

Tampa Bay +14.5 (too high)

Wow, I hear you, though, it is a big line. The problem is this, how do the Bucs keep it within two touchdowns? We already know they have the worst pass and run defense, so it won’t be with defense. So Philly plays conservative on offense and only scores 27, is the Philly defense going to give up 13 points to a team that scored 13 points in the last two weeks combined? Maybe. Philly won 38-10 and 34-14 in their two wins so far, and KC and Carolina both have better defenses than TB.

Each week the Joker and Oz will be providing a breakdown, conversation, and some comedy regarding each NFL game for us at the Union. You can find Joker blogging every once in a while at Downtown Padres and OZ at The Matthew Osgood. OZ’s novel, Chasing Sunsets, reads like a smooth glass of aged scotch. Buy it here.

NEW ENGLAND (-4) over Atlanta: This should be a tough game for my boys. I thought last week was the week they bounce back and put up 40, but it wasn’t the case. Last week was the worst game I’ve seen Brady play in a while. I just can’t count on him sucking two weeks in a row. He is too good.

I have to agree.  I want to take Atlanta here, but there defense is not good, and the Patriots should have a field day.  Brady should be in eff you mode, and Welker should be back, right?  I think this is a good game, and Atlanta could not only cover, but win, however, the Patriots at home after a loss against a team without a good defense is a decent matchup.  I won’t bet it, though.  The best bet of the week does happen to be in this game, however, because the score will be somewhere in the 30s for both teams.

Patriots -4 (reluctantly)

Chicago (-1) over SEATTLE: It’s hard betting against Seattle at home because it’s one of the only places home-field advantage really matters in the NFL. It’s weird. Why Seattle? They were saying the University of Washington has one of the loudest stadiums in college football and I didn’t get that either. Oh well. I just think Chicago is a better team.

The Seattle home field advantage actually stems from the construction of the stadium.  It holds all the noise in, so it is extremely loud, and one end is open allowing strong winds to screw with visiting kickers.  I don’t know if I have figured Chicago out yet, because their running game should be better, and they should throw less because they have a solid defense.  However, the passing game seems to be getting better each week.  This game is easy because Hasselbeck is effed up again.  I don’t know what the line looks like now, but Chicago should be able to beat a Seahawks team with Seneca Wallace at the helm no matter where the game is played.

Bears -1

New Orleans Saints (-6) over BUFFALO: Good teaser here at Even money for the Saints. They have a lot of fire power. It’s going to be hard for them to get beat unless they face someone who is either a.) top-notch defensively – NYG, Bal – or b.) can score keep the ball out of Brees’ hands.

I agree with you here, completely, except for the part of Baltimore having a top notch defense.  They have given up 50 points in two games.  I know you hate to say it, but the Jets can probably replace them on your list.  So really, nothing else to say here, Buffalo won’t be able to keep up, pure and simple.

Saints -6

Miami (+6) over SAN DIEGO: Not sure what to make here. The Dolphins looked good in terms of holding onto the ball this past week against Indianapolis. Sure, they lost, but I mean, come on, how good is Manning with the ball in his hands in the final three minutes? I’m going to give the Dolphins some credit here and take a risk.

I, unfortunately, agree with you here.  On one hand, I actually trust Rivers at the end of the game, in two games he won a game on the final drive and took his team to ten and just missed on a game winning drive because Norv took it out of his hands.  The problem is the Chargers run defense, its not good.  Miami should be able to do the same thing they did to Indy, and you can’t expect the Chargers to do the same thing Indy pulled off.  This will probably look like the Chargers vs Raiders game with one small difference, Chad Pennington is much better than JaMarcus Russel.

Dolphins +6

Pittsburgh (-4) over CINCINATTI: No idea here. The Steelers should be the better team.

One would think.  Who knows what to think of Cincy right now, and subsequently the Broncos, that first game has me completely confused.  I have to take Pitt here, but I am throwing my hands in the air as I do so.  Pittsburgh has a terrible running game.  Just thought I’d throw that out there.

Steelers -4

OAKLAND (-1.5) over Denver: I have a crazy guy who works across the hall from me. He was running for mayor of my town (he lost), but he ran on the (apparently) “I’m Crazy” ticket and just said things like, “whoever designed the high school should be shot” and made a list of all the corrupt judges in the state. Anyway, he just came in my room to talk to me. I couldn’t care less about this game.

The sad thing is, he isn’t nearly as crazy as the person demanding that Russel (who is 19 of 54 passing so far) be the starting QB of the Raiders.  As long as he is the QB, I can’t take them to beat even a decent team, and the Broncos look to be decent.  I haven’t actually watched them play yet, but the defense is doing solid, and the offense isn’t turning over the ball.  So far, they look much better, and Kyle Orton is considerably better (who thought that would ever be in a sentence) than Russell.

Broncos +1.5

ARIZONA (-2.5) over Indianapolis: The Colts defense didn’t look too good and the Cardinals can match them offensively. Take the over, and the Cardinals.

I don’t know why, but I still don’t like the Cardinals.  They are probably getting healthier at the WR position, but they still aren’t 100%.  Kurt Warner still scares me, and they have a lot of trouble running the ball.  The Colts defense isn’t bad, they are just succeptable to the run, that shouldn’t be a huge problem here.  I think the Cardinals get more credit than they should by getting to the Super Bowl last year.  Did we all forget the NFC West was really really bad, and the Cardinals went 9-7 in the regular season?  This is an interesting matchup and I don’t claim to know who will win, but at this point I like the Colts more than the Cardinals.

Colts +2.5

Carolina (+9.5) over DALLAS: Spread is too high here.

True.  Carolina looked better last week, and I think they continue to improve.  They have a great running game, and Dallas is overrated.  I think it was Bill Simmons in his podcast with cousin Sal talking about the new Dallas stadium and they pointed out that visiting teams playing their for the first time will have trouble adjusting at first.  The screen is so crazy, the team will have trouble focusing, so I think maybe Dallas is a good first quarter or first half bet this year at home.  I do think this is too many points, though, and I wouldn’t even be surprised if Carolina were to win here.

Panthers +9.5

Oz in Bold text and Joker in normal text.  Each week the Joker and Oz will be providing a breakdown, conversation, and some comedy regarding each NFL game for us at the Union. You can find Joker blogging every once in a while at Downtown Padres and OZ at The Matthew Osgood. OZ’s novel, Chasing Sunsets, reads like a smooth glass of aged scotch. Buy it here.

NYJ (-3) over Tennessee: The Titans looked tough against the Steelers, but gave up 34 to the Texans. They’re just an anomaly right now. I’ll take the home team, but don’t think I’m not tempted at the +130 money line on the Titans on a ML parlay.

I am wary here because the Titans desperately need a win, and the Jets are setup perfectly for a let down game here.  However, the Jets have looked amazing, and the Titans less so.  I guess its actaully a solid matchup for the Titans, though, because the Jets strength seems to the passing game because they can matchup with the best receivers in the world one on one and beat you elsewhere, that’s not an issue here.  Also, the titans have been beaten in the passing game, and that is not the Jets strenght.  I am going the letdown theory here.

Titans +3

HOUSTON (-4) over Jacksonville: Both teams are tough to figure out. Actually, all of the teams in that division are tough to figure out. Steve Slaton, my keeper, has 37 yards rushing this season. No wonder I’m in second to last place.

I don’t necessarily think these teams are hard to figure out.  I think that Jacksonville is terrible, and Houston is good.  The Jets defense is very good, and that’s why Houston had a rough time in week one.  I think this one is easy.

Houston -4

Cleveland (+13) over BALTIMORE: Double-digit spreads are pretty easy to stay away from for me as far as taking the favorites. It’s professional sports. If you’re getting beaten by two scores, get off the field. I really like this as a +19 teaser.

The problem with that theory is that the Browns have lost by a combined 35 points in their two games, which is an average of 17.5 per game.  Baltimore has a better offense and defense than the Broncos who last week beat the Browns 27-6.

Baltimore -13

Giants (-7) over TAMPA BAY: Hasn’t Tampa Bay gotten pretty much shat on twice? This is the game, I hope, Brandon Jacobs comes to play. He hasn’t hit paydirt once, and why not do it against the team that is gunning for the top pick in next year’s draft. Byron Leftwich is their quarterback.

The Bucks are horrendous, and I don’t really understand this line.  The Cowboys beat Tampa by 13 in Florida, and the Giants just beat Dallas in their own stadium.  I think the Bucs may have this years worst defense and possibly next years number one pick.

Giants -7 with confidence

DETROIT (+6.5) over Washington: They’re going to get me a payday, yet.

Hahahahha, I don’t here.  The Redskins barely won at home vs possibly a worse team than the Lions.  At the same time, I can’t remember when I last saw the Lions getting less than 7 points and thinking about taking them.  I will not touch this game with any money, including washington in a survivor pool.  Lions may get their first win since Dec 23, 2007.

Lions +6.5

Green Bay (-6.5) over ST. LOUIS: I should pick the Rams out of spite because the Packers cost me a parlay last week because they were awful at home. How can a team look so good in week one, then put up a shitter in their home opener? Here’s thinking they rebound.

I think they rebound too.  The Bengals are a much better team than the Rams, and this line is a reflection only on these two teams’ results from last week.

Packers -6.5

San Francisco (+7) over MINNESOTA: The 49ers are showing some heart this year. They’re a likable squad. They could be 2-0. How hurt is Peterson? I don’t really know, but I’m willing to say Favre shows the Vikings fans what they’re getting themselves into this week.

Damn, I was hoping to be opposite you here, because I love the Niners.  I wouldn’t put my bank roll on them, but Minn so far has played Cle and Detroit, so they haven’t seen anything yet.  The Niners are playing solid defense and they have a QB that can win.  I think this is a low scoring affair, and 7 in too many points.

San Francisco +7

Oz in Bold text and Joker in normal text.  Each week the Joker and Oz will be providing a breakdown, conversation, and some comedy regarding each NFL game for us at the Union. You can find Joker blogging every once in a while at Downtown Padres and OZ at The Matthew Osgood. OZ’s novel, Chasing Sunsets, reads like a smooth glass of aged scotch. Buy it here.

OZ:  Indianapolis (-3) over MIAMI: The Dolphins are still getting Vegas love for last year huh? Ride this wave while we can.

Joker: Pick of the week for me.  The Miami offense is pretty terrible, and the Indy defense is just average without Bob Sanders, but if they look anything like they did last week, Indy should roll here, and I think that holds true.  My parlay of the week is Indy, Giants and Vikings…I think they are all golden.

Colts -3

Each week the Joker and Oz will be providing a breakdown, conversation, and some comedy regarding each NFL game for us at the Union. You can find Joker blogging every once in a while at Downtown Padres and OZ at The Matthew Osgood. OZ’s novel, Chasing Sunsets, reads like a smooth glass of aged scotch. Buy it here.

OZ: New York Giants (+3) over DALLAS: New stadium or not, the Giants are the better team in this game. Every division game is tough in the NFC East, but I see New York outclassing the Cowboys.

Joker: Agreed.

Giants +3

Each week the Joker and Oz will be providing a breakdown, conversation, and some comedy regarding each NFL game for us at the Union. You can find Joker blogging every once in a while at Downtown Padres and OZ at The Matthew Osgood. OZ’s novel, Chasing Sunsets, reads like a smooth glass of aged scotch. Buy it here.

OZ: Pittsburgh (-3) over CHICAGO: Road favorites are tough. The line basically suggests that the Steelers at home are a 6 point favorite, which I disagree with. I bet this game falls within a touchdown either way. Nice old school, hard hitting matchup. Too bad the two best defensive players from each team aren’t playing.

Joker: The lines aren’t favoring the home teams like they used to, and this is a perfect example.  It is hard to predict without those two guys, but based on Cutler’s first half performance in his first game with the Bears, I think he is nervous and does the same thing in his first home game.  The running game didn’t look good from either team, I am interested to see if they do better here because of no Urlacher or Palamalu.  Defending champs until they look bad or Chicago comes around, which I do think they will.

Pittsburgh -3

Each week the Joker and Oz will be providing a breakdown, conversation, and some comedy regarding each NFL game for us at the Union. You can find Joker blogging every once in a while at Downtown Padres and OZ at The Matthew Osgood. OZ’s novel, Chasing Sunsets, reads like a smooth glass of aged scotch. Buy it here.

OZ: Baltimore (+3) over SAN DIEGO: San Diego needs to overcome injuries here. The Baltimore defense might be too good to overcome at this point. Flacco looked really good last week. I know another underdog ML I’m taking.

Joker: The Baltimore defense gave up a lot of points last week to a terrible offense, but not a ton of yards.  The Chargers O line is beat up, and they won’t be able to play terrible for 3.5 quarters like they did last week.  I hope to god they pick it up, but they need improved line play to win this game.

Ravens +3

Each week the Joker and Oz will be providing a breakdown, conversation, and some comedy regarding each NFL game for us at the Union. You can find Joker blogging every once in a while at Downtown Padres and OZ at The Matthew Osgood. OZ’s novel, Chasing Sunsets, reads like a smooth glass of aged scotch. Buy it here.

OZ: DENVER (-3) over Cleveland: The worst game of the week competition boils down to this, Seattle-SF, KC-Oakland, but at least the latter two are division games. This is just a shitty game that shouldn’t appear anywhere on TV but the metro Cleveland and Denver areas. They shouldn’t even show highlights.

Joker: Once again, I think Cincinnatti is bad, not that Denver has an improved defense.  The Broncos looked terrible last week, and I am once again judging based on week 1 performance.  Just like you say, who cares here.  I won’t bet it or watch it.

Browns +3

Each week the Joker and Oz will be providing a breakdown, conversation, and some comedy regarding each NFL game for us at the Union. You can find Joker blogging every once in a while at Downtown Padres and OZ at The Matthew Osgood. OZ’s novel, Chasing Sunsets, reads like a smooth glass of aged scotch. Buy it here.

OZ: BUFFALO (-5) over Tampa Bay: Buffalo can either rebound or stay down. I like the toughness of this team.

Joker: They are without McGee, who looked awesome last week.  Until Tampa does better than they did last week, I can’t take them.  This pick is purely based on last week’s performance, which I hate doing, but have to with two teams I don’t yet understand.  Tampa seems to have a good running game and thats it.  I have a feeling I regret this pick, but…

Bills -5

Each week the Joker and Oz will be providing a breakdown, conversation, and some comedy regarding each NFL game for us at the Union. You can find Joker blogging every once in a while at Downtown Padres and OZ at The Matthew Osgood. OZ’s novel, Chasing Sunsets, reads like a smooth glass of aged scotch. Buy it here.

OZ: Arizona (+3) over JACKSONVILLE: Why not? The NFC Champs have to have some pride, no?

Joker: What makes you think that?  Has the Super Bowl loser ever played with “pride” the following year?  I expect less out of Arizona this year than Jacksonville.  Will Jacksonville be able to score, yes, will Arizona, probably, but I think they will be without Breaston and Boldin.

Jags -3

Each week the Joker and Oz will be providing a breakdown, conversation, and some comedy regarding each NFL game for us at the Union. You can find Joker blogging every once in a while at Downtown Padres and OZ at The Matthew Osgood. OZ’s novel, Chasing Sunsets, reads like a smooth glass of aged scotch. Buy it here.